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夏春:美国增加关税带来全球贸易碎片化,最坏损失相当于日德GDP之和_我的网站

A | The electric vehicle ecosystem in India is still at a very nascent stage, but the number of electric vehicles on Indian roads is on the rise every day.,Despite the growth, there are a lot of challenges that need to be addressed with regard to the EV infrastructure.,Road safety is one of the major concerns, as the country ranks first in terms of number of road accident deaths in the world. Last year, the World Economic Forum (WEF) launched the Road Safety 2.0 program in India with an aim to introduce technology which would promote the 4Es of road safety i.e. Education, Engineering, Enforcement and Emergency care.,In an interview with Sputnik, Akhilesh Srivastava, Project Head of the World Economic Forum’s Road Safety 2.0 program and Member of the NHEV Knowledge group, talked about measures to be taken to ensure road safety in India and discussed the challenges presented by the battery swapping policy in India.,Sputnik: According to government data, India ranks first in the number of road accident deaths in the world. As you lead the World Economic Forum’s initiative Road Safety 2.0 in India, what measures are required to reduce such fatalities?,Akhilesh Srivastava: With 11 percent of global road fatalities, India ranks worst in terms of the sheer number of road accident deaths in the world. The impact of road accidents on Indian GDP is nearly INR 2.5 trillion ($31.7 billion) i.e., over 1.85 percent of the GDP.,It is clear that old or conventional methods of road safety are not working and there is an urgent need for a new solution. The WEF-led Road Safety 2.0 is one such next-gen solution, where the power of technology is leveraged to save lives on roads.,A few of the measures have been enumerated in it are: the use of technology is the best way to quickly and effectively reduce accidents; сontinuous tracking driving behavior using IoT to generate Safe Driving Scores. The SDS can be used as a monitoring mechanism for incentivizing good driving behavior and reskilling the bad drivers; use of Safety measures like seat belt and helmet with sensors attached; use of AI with the integration of Traffic Lights; implementation of ITS-based penalty set up to penalize people; scaling awareness about the regulations among the people;,Sputnik: WEF’s Road Safety 2.0 talks about an approach to create a human-centric road ecosystem. Could you elaborate what sort of road ecosystem it aims to create?,Akhilesh Srivastava: Human-centric design is a method of product creation that places the requirements, desires, and abilities of users at the forefront of the process. Rather than expecting users to change and conform their behaviors to the product, it involves making design decisions based on how people can, need, and want to do tasks.,Moving on from existing to a human-centric road ecosystem will help the highway builders, manufacturing industry and the enforcement agencies tackle the needs of the people and then accordingly devise the road safety setup and create a human-centric road ecosystem.,For Example, the presence of air bags in the car is for the drivers and passengers' safety. Why only the front seat should have air bags, people in the back seats are equally vulnerable. As per the human-centric approach, the seat belt should be for all humans in the vehicle. All seats in private vehicles like cars and for all passengers in long-distance public transport buses.,Pedestrians, cyclists and other vulnerable road users should be given due space and weightage while framing the policies. In India, pedestrians, cyclists and two-wheelers constitute the majority but the roads and road rules, are made keeping in mind the bigger vehicles.,Sputnik: FASTags in India were adopted to make travel seamless on National Highways and Expressways. However, despite the complete roll-out we see long queues of vehicles at toll plazas and technical glitches being reported. How can an effective and glitch-free usage of FASTags be adopted?,Akhilesh Srivastava: FASTag has made travel hassle-free on highways and expressways in India. There are no queues. FASTag has made tolling very efficient and transparent. Last year’s toll collection was the highest ever at nearly INR 400 billion (Over $5 million),Apart from this, the FASTag has saved fuel wastage of worth over INR 200 billion ($2.5 million) which happened due to idling of vehicles at toll plazas. It also resulted in saving at least 50 million MT of carbon emission.,Sputnik: Regarding the electric vehicle segment, it is a well-known fact that in India it is at a very nascent stage. What are the major challenges that stakeholders are facing and how can they be tackled?,Akhilesh Srivastava: With 100 percent FDI available, new production centres, and a greater push to improve charging infrastructure, India's electric vehicle industry is gaining traction.,Other growth factors for the Indian EV industry include federal subsidies and policies supporting deeper discounts for Indian-made electric two-wheelers, as well as a boost for localized ACC battery storage manufacture.,Furthermore, in September 2021, the federal government authorized a production-linked incentive program for the automotive sector to stimulate the manufacture of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In 2021, India sold over 300,000 electric vehicles.,Some of the challenges that exist but are being tackled by the stakeholders are: inadequate charging infrastructure; reliance on battery imports; reliance on imported components and parts, range anxiety among consumers; current high price of EVs; lack of options for high-performance EVs; inadequate electricity supply in parts of India; lack of quality maintenance and repair options.,Sputnik: You have links with the NHEV (National Highway for Electric Vehicle) programme. What initiatives are being taken under the programme to expand EV infrastructure?,Akhilesh Srivastava: Yes, I appreciate this question which talks about Electric Vehicles and being a member of the Knowledge group of NHEV, I wish similar kind of road safety in India, however, some additional concerns are to be kept in mind are:,• The EV is directly connected to a regular household power outlet. This mode is the simplest possible charging mode and does not support any communication between the EV and the charge point, hence it is prohibited in many countries due to safety concerns.,• The onboard charger converts AC to DC. It uses a special type of charging cable equipped with an in-cable control and protection device. This can be used for private charging, but its public use is subject to restrictions in many countries.,• Batteries are the key element. And we noticed a few cases of fire recently. There should be a proper set of technical and regulatory guidelines for the batteries, about its specifications, unique Id number of batteries, uniformity in the charging system, and even uniformity in batteries so that battery swapping can be done easily.,Tracking of batteries can give alerts about the health of batteries so that unsafe batteries can be removed timely.,Sputnik: Ever since the Finance Minister announced the battery swapping policy, it has been a much talked about topic across the segment. Do you think it can be realized?,Akhilesh Srivastava: I appreciate the announcement by Finance Minister about the battery swapping policy. A detailed policy for battery standardization, specifications, and safety protocols is being prepared.,We should think of the battery as a service for battery swapping. This will allow the setting up of battery stations on a mass level; a battery swapping policy will be brought in and interoperability standards will be formulated.,The private players should be encouraged to develop sustainable and innovative models for the battery as a service which will increase efficiency in the electric vehicle ecosystem. This will reduce the cost of Electric Vehicles and give impetus for electric vehicle growth in the coming years.,Sputnik: Electric vehicles are an alternative to petrol and diesel vehicles, and commonly seen as a way to reduce carbon emissions. However, the source of electricity remains non-renewable, so what roadmap has the NHEV adopted to generate electricity for the electric vehicles through renewable sources?,Akhilesh Srivastava: The transport sector accounts for 18 percent of total energy consumption in India. This translates to an estimated 94 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) energy.,If India were to follow the current trends of energy consumption, it would require an estimated 200 MTOE of energy supply annually, by the year 2030 to meet the demand of this sector. As of now, this demand is being met mostly through imported crude oil, which therefore makes this sector vulnerable to volatile international crude oil prices. Moreover, the sector also contributes an estimated 142 million tons of CO2 emissions annually.,Electric mobility presents a viable alternative in addressing these challenges, when packaged with innovative pricing solutions, appropriate technology and support infrastructure and thus, has been on the radar of the Government of India.,The point of renewability of electricity is being addressed too with renewable energies like solar energy, wind energy and other forms other renewable sources of energy. The growth of India in this has been spectacular and the country is ahead of many developed countries in this regard.,Want to know more? Check out our Koo & Telegram accounts!,Koo: https://www.kooapp.com/profile/sputniknews,Sputnik India: https://t.me/sputniknewsindia。
周二拜登宣布向180亿美元中国商品,包括电动汽车、半导体、太阳能和电池,加征关税。经过测算,这些关税大约会使得美国的通胀同比增长一个基点,也就是0.01个百分点,对GDP的拖累也同样是一个基点,都可以忽略不计。因为4月通胀下行,市场预期9月降息,美股创出新高。影响不大的主要原因就是之前对中国电动汽车征收的25%的关税,使得原本中国对美国出口就很少。去年中国向美国出口了大约3.7亿美元的电动车,欧盟向美国出口了近 75 亿美元。中国仅占美国进口电动汽车的2%。德国、韩国和日本的占比分别为22%、21%和18%。采取加征关税减少竞争的方法来保护电动汽车,只会让美国汽车制造商进步缓慢。而且美国现在严重依赖中国生产的电池,加征关税只会使得整车成本更贵,美国想买电动车的老百姓就只能支付更高价格了。在海外市场,中国电动车都可以凭借价格和技术取胜。美国车将一步步被边缘化,美国新能源产业会越来越落后。2020年大选,拜登猛烈抨击特朗普向中国3000亿美元进口商品的征税,严重伤害了美国,因为95%以上的关税都是由美国企业和家庭承担的。但拜登上任后,继承了这些关税,目的就是遏制中国的发展。
B |
而这一次加税主要目的是讨好摇摆州的选民。最新民调显示拜登在六个摇摆州的五个都落后特朗普。
C |
但是特朗普上台后,大概率会向所有国家加征关税,而且主要是针对中国。这几年贸易战打下来,美国经济学家都一致反对,新研究显示过去中美贸易顺畅时,美国家庭和企业都直接受惠,贸易战让大家直接受伤。即使是过去声称中国商品造成美国制造业工人失业的经济学家,也完全改变了态度。拜登加征关税的行为,也引来了IMF发言人Julie Kozack的批评。她表示,美国针对中国的贸易限制措施可能会扭曲贸易和投资,使得供应链碎片化并引发报复行动。她说:“这种碎片化可能会让全球经济付出高昂的代价。”IMF确定2023年全球贸易限制约为3000项,高于2019年的1000项,在地缘政治集团严重分裂的最坏情况下,这可能会使全球经济产出减少约7%,相当于减少了日本和德国GDP的总和。“关于关税,我们的观点是,美国最好保持其开放的贸易政策,这对其经济表现至关重要,”Kozack说,“我们还鼓励美国和中国共同努力,找到一个解决方案,解决加剧两国贸易紧张局势的根本问题。
D | ”
现在为拜登或者特朗普欢呼的选民,将来都会发现,是他们自己葬送了美国的就业和发展机会! 。
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